Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."